The Streaking Nats - Don't Expect it to Last Too Long Folks

Adam Kilgore, the Nationals beat writer for the Washington Post, wrote an article yesterday on Why the Nationals can keep their hot streak going, while he makes some good notes and comments on the Nationals current hot streak let's keep in mind that this is indeed a hot streak. I wouldn't expect too much to come of this streak, the Nats will cool down, they don't have the talent to keep it up. His reasons that the Nats can keep it up:

Their run differential says it's not a fluke.

Ryan Zimmerman will play more.

Jayson Werth will play better.

The starting pitching can keep it up.

The schedule seems favorable.

So now I'm gonna break all these down.

First, the thing about run differential. Adam says that because the Nats have scored eight more runs than their opponents, that is a symbol that this streak will continue. However, riding a hot streak and still at .500, I'd say that this just means the Nats are terribly inconsistent and that the recent 10 wins in 11 games may also have something to do with this positive run differential, as pitching and hitting have been working together well. I don't think the first two and a half months of the season are a fluke, though, and that shows less consistent scoring and pitching.

Zimmerman will play more. Good point. He's a great player and no doubt will have a positive affect on his team, but he isn't the Nats saving grace and can't put a team on his back.

Jayson Werth. The most expensive .235 hitter in the National League. I'm just assuming that, but it's pretty still pretty bad. Adam seems to think this is a fluke, he's probably right, Werth will probably raise is average over the course of the season, but where Adam is wrong is how much. He mentions that over the past four seasons Werth has posted an average of .282, but over the course of his career, Werth is a mediocre .268 hitter, it is very possible that he will post an average around .250 this season.

On starting pitching. Hold on there Adam, don't let a few good starts fool you. This is really where the inevitable O's and Nats comparisons really start to come into play. The Two teams are on basically, equal levels here. As far as starting pitching, Zimmermann, a 3.08 ERA, and Marquis, a 7-2 record, seem to be the stabler starting pitchers for the Nats, with Strasburg back next year, that is a good trio to start with but it certainly isn't a full-proof plan. Lannan has never seemed to reach his potential, combating great starts every once and a while with very poor or mediocre performances, while his ERA is 3.40, he lost 7 consecutive starts at one time, and that was very recent.  Zach Britton, Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz, and Chris Tillman all appear to be solid starting pitching for the Orioles future, with  Britton, Arrieta (who leads the AL in wins with 9), and Brian Matusz possible All-Star contenders in the future with ace potential.

As for the schedule thing. Adam states that the Nats play well at home and play more home games for the remainder of the season than away. OK true. But he also says that the 49 games the Nats play against sub-.500 teams will really help the Nats (out of 89 remaining games). This is only true in part, the Nats have been riding a hot streak and playing bad teams never hurt anyone, but I'm going to guess that those sub-.500 teams are going to be circling their calendars when they play the Nats and putting those down as potential wins because like me, they know hot streaks that erupt in June for teams that spent the first two months where they were suppose to be, in last place, aren't made to last.

This again, is where the O's comparisons come into play. I hate to say it but with this Nats team and these pitchers, this isn't going to last. Teams go on hot streaks all the time, especially this time of the year. In order to really make a judgment on a team that has been in the cellar for years and has suddenly propped itself up to .500, you have to wait till at least mid-August. I remember not too long ago, around 2006, an Orioles team that was in first place until early August. People thought that they could say it was a solid O's team after the All-Star break but even that proved to be a poor judgment. That Orioles team played a hot streak from opening day until August, for longer than the Nats current 11 game stint. To make the case that the Nats are a fully improved team because they are on a hot streak and that 74 games into the season they finally reach .500, is a poor one, especially in June, not a month that separates contenders from pretenders.